Null Studies 

This study examines how moving the date of an expected crisis influences citizens' willingness to support costly debt consolidation policies. Motivated by work suggesting individuals are myopic and willing to delay investment in costly public policies, this study leverages a representative online panel in Brazil to test how manipulating expectations of a crisis influences support for costly debt consolidation. H1: Citizens are more likely to accept debt consolidation the more proximate a crisis. H2: The effect of crisis timing on support for debt consolidation will be greater among citizens that are more myopic. Authors: DiGiuseppe. Registered: September 22, 2022. Funded by ERC grant #852334.

This study tests an implication of the 'war of attrition' model (Alesina and Drazen 1989), which suggests that sub-national groups hoping to avoid the burden of stabilization prefer to delay reform until uncertainty over who will shoulder the burden is resolved. A survey experiment fielded in Kenya seven months before the 2022 general election manipulates perceptions of election outcomes. Primary hypothesis: Citizens are less likely to support debt stabilization delay when election results are clear than when they are uncertain, especially among individuals whose representatives are currently out of power. Authors: Brown, DiGiuseppe, and Shea. Registered: February 18, 2022. Funded by ERC grant #852334.

What effect does fiscal consolidation have on politics in ethnically polarized countries? This study tests whether austerity increases intentions to vote for co-ethnic candidates. A survey experiment fielded in Kenya prior to the 2022 general election randomly informs respondents that fiscal consolidation will take place after the election, then analyzes effects on co-ethnic voting intentions and expectations of inter-ethnic inequality. Effects are hypothesized to be strongest among those with strong ethnic identity, members of smaller ethnic groups, and those from rural areas. Authors: DiGiuseppe, Brown, and Shea. Registered: February 18, 2022.

Original registration for the IMF intervention study. Tests whether citizens respond to the prospect of IMF intervention with moral hazard (resisting stabilization in anticipation of a bailout) or with increased support for domestically-led reforms (to prevent costly IMF conditionality). Survey experiments fielded in Brazil and Kenya leverage the COVID-19 pandemic's increased demand for IMF resources to separate intervention from its signal of crisis severity. Pre-registered after a pilot (N=70) and a soft launch of the first 100 responses in Brazil. Authors: DiGiuseppe, Reinsberg, and Brown. Registered: November 15, 2021. Funded by ERC grant #852334.

This study examines whether the 'wealth effect' extends to support for future-oriented public policies like climate change mitigation, pandemic preparedness, and debt reduction. Respondents are randomly encouraged to look up their home value on Zillow.com. The study tests whether individuals who update their beliefs about their wealth are more likely to support future-oriented policies, and whether this effect is conditional on local housing market conditions, housing market naivety, and partisan strength. Authors: DiGiuseppe. Registered: June 13, 2023.

How do citizens respond to the prospect of an IMF intervention as economic conditions deteriorate? This study tests competing mechanisms: moral hazard (citizens resist stabilization anticipating a generous bailout) versus the shadow of conditionality (citizens support domestic reforms to prevent costly IMF intervention). A survey experiment fielded in Brazil and Kenya leverages demand for IMF resources during COVID-19 to separate IMF intervention from its signal of crisis severity. This is the updated registration following data collection in Brazil and prior to treatment assignment in Kenya. Authors: DiGiuseppe, Reinsberg, and Brown. Registered: February 18, 2022. Funded by ERC grant #852334.

A growing share of emerging market sovereign debt is held by domestic institutional investors and individuals. This study examines implications for the politics of sovereign debt repayment: (1) whether citizens prefer repaying debt held by domestic creditors, and (2) whether domestic debt creates a clearly identified constituency for repayment consistent with distributive arguments of the 'democratic advantage' in sovereign borrowing. A survey experiment fielded in Brazil in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic tests whether material interests influence preferences for debt repayment. Authors: DiGiuseppe and Slaski. Registered: November 15, 2021. Funded by ERC grant #852334.